Has ELP enforcement really reduced trucking capacity?

10,000 drivers out of service for ELP violations

The regulatory environment tightened in April, when President Donald Trump signed an executive order reinforcing the English proficiency requirement for all truck drivers in the country. In May, Overdrive cited Avery Vise, an analyst with FTR Transportation Intelligence, who estimated that strict enforcement of the ELP, similar to that seen in the early 2010s, could raise rates by as much as 15%.

Current data, however, show that enforcement levels are far below those years. In the early 2010s, between 80,000 and 100,000 ELP violations were recorded annually. By contrast, this year’s figures would reach only about half that level, according to Overdrive’s RigDig Business Intelligence panel, which tracks violations nationwide.

Although not all violations result in out-of-service orders, Overdrive notes that the removal of roughly 10,000 drivers, especially if concentrated in long-haul trucking, could affect certain market segments, such as independent owner-operators. Analysts like Dean Croke of DAT have pointed out that even small changes in total capacity can produce amplified effects in the spot market.

Even so, the most recent view from DAT is skeptical. In December, Ken Adamo, the firm’s head of analytics, said that ELP enforcement “has had absolutely no impact” on rates. According to Adamo, current fluctuations are driven mainly by seasonal factors and weak demand, marked by consumer caution and slowdowns in sectors such as manufacturing and construction.

Results from an Overdrive survey reinforce this perception. While 70% of surveyed drivers believe DOT measures will improve rates, 23% think there will be no change and that the market will continue to be governed by supply and demand. Among drivers who would lose their CDL under the new rules, 56% also believed that rates would not change significantly.