Has ELP enforcement really reduced trucking capacity?

A study by Overdrive questions the real impact of ELP Enforcement on U.S. freight rates.

An investigation conducted by Overdrive, based on data from its parent company MC Advantage and interviews with industry analysts, questions the real impact that enforcement of the English Language Proficiency (ELP) requirement has had on the U.S. freight transportation market.

According to data collected through December 18, since the beginning of the year commercial vehicle inspectors have placed 10,203 CDL-licensed drivers out of service for failing to comply with 49 CFR 391.11(b)(2), which requires truck operators to demonstrate proficiency in English. U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Secretary Sean Duffy himself stated on December 11 that nearly 10,000 unqualified drivers had been sidelined and that the agency did not plan to slow the pace of inspections.

However, Overdrive’s analysis raises a key question: if thousands of drivers have truly exited the market, why have freight rates not shown significant changes?

10,000 drivers out of service for ELP violations

The regulatory environment tightened in April, when President Donald Trump signed an executive order reinforcing the English proficiency requirement for all truck drivers in the country. In May, Overdrive cited Avery Vise, an analyst with FTR Transportation Intelligence, who estimated that strict enforcement of the ELP, similar to that seen in the early 2010s, could raise rates by as much as 15%.

Current data, however, show that enforcement levels are far below those years. In the early 2010s, between 80,000 and 100,000 ELP violations were recorded annually. By contrast, this year’s figures would reach only about half that level, according to Overdrive’s RigDig Business Intelligence panel, which tracks violations nationwide.

Although not all violations result in out-of-service orders, Overdrive notes that the removal of roughly 10,000 drivers, especially if concentrated in long-haul trucking, could affect certain market segments, such as independent owner-operators. Analysts like Dean Croke of DAT have pointed out that even small changes in total capacity can produce amplified effects in the spot market.

Even so, the most recent view from DAT is skeptical. In December, Ken Adamo, the firm’s head of analytics, said that ELP enforcement “has had absolutely no impact” on rates. According to Adamo, current fluctuations are driven mainly by seasonal factors and weak demand, marked by consumer caution and slowdowns in sectors such as manufacturing and construction.

Results from an Overdrive survey reinforce this perception. While 70% of surveyed drivers believe DOT measures will improve rates, 23% think there will be no change and that the market will continue to be governed by supply and demand. Among drivers who would lose their CDL under the new rules, 56% also believed that rates would not change significantly.

The lack of a practical, unified system

Overdrive’s investigation adds another critical element: drivers placed out of service do not always stop operating. The DOT acknowledged in August that some drivers sanctioned for ELP violations were later stopped in other states and allowed to continue driving due to a lack of visibility into prior out-of-service orders. The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) confirmed that inspectors do not have a practical, unified system to immediately identify these sanctions on the road.

Although the CVSA has launched a training campaign to improve these controls, Overdrive emphasizes that the lack of effective follow-up dilutes the real impact of the measures. Taken together, the investigation suggests that despite official announcements and tighter regulations, the effects of enforcing the English proficiency requirement are not yet clearly reflected in freight rates, and that its true impact may take longer to materialize.