Freight Rates Are Rising: What the 2026 U.S. Trucking Data Shows

The U.S. freight transportation market is beginning to show clearer signs of change. Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence have published their respective first-half 2026 surveys of freight brokers and carriers, revealing a scenario in which rates, volumes, and revenues are beginning to improve, while available capacity is declining and significant financial challenges persist.

Joe Pergola, CFO of Truckstop, noted that the freight cycle is gaining momentum. For the first time, a greater proportion of participants in both segments reported increases in rates, revenue, and volume than those who observed declines or stability.

Freight Rates in the First Half of 2026 

Freight Brokers Face Higher Rates and Tighter Capacity

According to the survey results, freight brokers experienced one of the most significant market shifts during the first half of 2026. More than 80% reported year-over-year increases in spot rates, and among those who saw increases, more than one-third said they were at least 25%. In addition:

• Volumes: 51% higher, 18% unchanged, 31% lower
• Contract rates: 55% higher
• Revenue excluding fuel: 63% higher

Margins, however, remain under some pressure. Forty-three percent of respondents said their margins were lower than those recorded during the second half of 2025. Despite this, expectations are favorable: 74% anticipate an increase in demand.

One of the main changes is related to transportation capacity availability. Eighty-six percent of brokers believe it is currently more difficult to secure capacity than it was previously. In addition, 72% expect available capacity to decline over the next three to six months, compared with just 14% who anticipate an increase.

The availability of owned assets is also becoming more relevant. Nearly 70% of brokers consider having their own trailer fleet to be a competitive advantage over those that rely exclusively on external capacity.

Carriers Report More Loads but Remain Cautious

The outlook among carriers also points to a recovery, although uncertainty remains. During the second quarter, 50% of carriers reported an increase in load volume compared with the same period in 2025, a considerable improvement from the 27% recorded in the first quarter and the 17% reported in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Rates and revenue followed a similar trend. Forty-nine percent reported a year-over-year increase in revenue per mile, while 46% reported higher revenue, nearly double the 26% that had reported increases in the first quarter.

Even so, the market does not offer a uniform signal. Carriers were almost evenly split when assessing whether conditions were weaker than during the first quarter: 51% did not perceive a deterioration in demand, and 50% said the same about rates.

Expectations for the coming months are more positive, with 66% expecting demand to increase over the next three to six months and 53% anticipating higher rates. However, that outlook has not yet translated into significant fleet expansion, as 52% of carriers do not plan to purchase or replace tractors. The main reason is not a lack of demand: 26% believe they do not yet need new equipment, while 24% cite costs as the primary obstacle.

Economic Uncertainty and the Impact of Tariffs

Carriers’ views of the U.S. economy are less optimistic. Twenty-nine percent believe the United States is already in a recession, while another 28% believe the economy is heading toward one.

Tariffs are also a concern. Nearly two-thirds of carriers believe they will have a negative impact on trucking, while 61% expect prices to increase over the next six months.

These expectations reflect a market that is beginning to recover in terms of volume and rates but remains exposed to macroeconomic factors capable of increasing costs and changing demand patterns.

Meanwhile, regulatory changes are also influencing transportation companies’ decisions. Following the U.S. Supreme Court ruling regarding freight broker liability, which is expected to have an impact on the industry, 49% of surveyed brokers believe the primary effect will be an increase in transportation rates.

In addition, 18% expect increased investment in tools to evaluate carriers, while 10% anticipate greater consolidation among freight brokers. More than 80% of carriers also believe enforcement of English-language proficiency requirements will have a moderate or significant impact on the industry.

A Market Beginning to Change

The results from Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence point to a U.S. freight transportation industry that may be entering a new phase. Rising rates, volumes, and revenues suggest an improvement compared with previous periods, while declining capacity could put even more upward pressure on rates.

However, the recovery is not uniform. Carriers continue to face high costs and liquidity challenges, while brokers must adapt to tighter capacity, regulatory changes, and potential market consolidation.

In this environment, capacity, asset control, financial management, and operational efficiency could become decisive factors in taking advantage of the next freight cycle.