Shipowners Reassess Hormuz Transits as Security Risks Intensify

Shipowners’ willingness to continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, just hours after President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire between the United States and Iran “over.” With opinions divided, many shipping companies are still assessing the evolving security situation.

According to a recent Bloomberg report, five shipping companies whose vessels have recently sailed through the strategic waterway were surveyed. Three said they are still evaluating the risks of operating in the area, while the other two stated that, for now, they have not changed their transit policies.

In recent days, tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated once again. On July 7, a vessel operated by Sinokor Group, the world’s largest owner of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and a key player in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, was attacked. Three shipping companies that work with the group said they have not yet received updated guidance on Sinokor’s position regarding transits through the area. As a result, oil flows through the strait could largely depend on the company’s decision.

Concerns also grew on July 8 over the possibility of a return to full-scale conflict after President Trump warned that the United States would likely launch additional strikes against Iran, a move that could once again disrupt operations at Iranian ports, Bloomberg reported.

Oil volumes and prices at stake: Will shipowners continue crossing the Strait of Hormuz?

The volume of crude oil that continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and, by extension, the direction of global oil prices, could ultimately depend on a small group of shipping companies that have chosen to maintain operations through the waterway despite the increasingly complex geopolitical environment.

Two shipowners that had already dispatched vessels through Hormuz indicated they remain willing to continue doing so. According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, their ships passed through the strait under the cover of darkness in the hours after the United States resumed strikes against Iran.

Amid the current tensions, vessels crossing the area frequently switch off their tracking systems, making ship movements difficult to monitor. As a result, visible traffic on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz was limited on July 8. In addition, according to Transport Topics, the practice of some tankers leaving the Persian Gulf in convoys has contributed to greater volatility in daily transit figures.

On the day of the attack, benchmark tanker earnings for voyages into the Persian Gulf climbed above $340,000 per day, roughly $50,000 higher than at the close of the previous week. However, the benchmark has remained relatively illiquid since the conflict with Iran began, leaving it vulnerable to sharp price swings.

Rising transportation costs are creating an additional challenge for Gulf energy exporters, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq. These producers are facing higher logistics costs and growing operational uncertainty, while major Asian importers and European buyers could experience shipment delays and higher energy prices. As a result, volatility across global energy markets is expected to remain elevated.