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The presidential election will have a significant impact on the policies and regulations that will shape the sector.
As November begins, the pressure of the elections intensifies; in just four days, the future of the United States for the next four years will be decided. During their campaigns, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have presented contrasting visions for the country, particularly regarding road transportation. The presidential election will significantly affect the policies and regulations that will shape the sector over the next decade. What aspects of the industry are set to change on November 4?
Emission regulations: electrification of transportation
One of the recurring themes this year is the EPA’s regulations concerning the electrification of the transportation industry. The environmental approach of the next president will directly influence these regulations and the decisions of the California Air Resources Board. Depending on the election outcome, carriers may face stricter or more flexible emission requirements. The Clean Freight Coalition estimates that electrifying transportation could cost up to a trillion dollars, representing a radical shift in the sector’s operations.
Additionally, while the presidential administration will establish many regulations, Congress can also influence executive regulations. Conservative legislators are attempting to use the Congressional Review Act to eliminate vehicle emission regulations, potentially complicating the situation further for carriers.
In recent cases, we have seen a demand from transportation sector groups arguing that the U.S. economy relies heavily on heavy-duty vehicles primarily powered by diesel, highlighting that there are currently few electric trucks in circulation. However, this opposition may be affected once the results are revealed.
Tariffs as an economic tool
Tariffs are another key area where both candidates differ. Trump has advocated for an aggressive tariff strategy, proposing a 10-20% tariff on all imported goods and up to 100% on cars from Mexico. In contrast, Harris seems to favor a more moderate approach, although her administration has maintained and, in some cases, increased tariffs implemented by Biden.
These import taxes directly impact the transportation industry by altering market dynamics. For example, trade between the U.S. and Mexico has grown significantly, partly driven by tariffs on Chinese products, benefiting road transportation. Both outcomes could bring both benefits and consequences for the transportation sector.
Local transportation initiatives
In addition to the two main topics in transportation, various cities will be making decisions that affect transportation infrastructure. In Columbus, Ohio, voters will decide on a sales tax increase aimed at improving public transportation. Nashville, Tennessee, and San Diego are also evaluating significant initiatives for enhancing their transportation networks. Seattle, meanwhile, will consider renewing a tax for infrastructure maintenance, emphasizing the importance of safe and efficient transportation.
In Gallatin County, Montana, a vote will be held on increasing the local tax on motor vehicles. In Fremont County, Wyoming, residents will be asked whether to continue a 1-cent tax in place since 2012 for infrastructure projects. Carson City, Nevada, will include two questions aimed at raising around $7 million annually for road maintenance, along with a sales tax increase.
As we approach the 2024 elections, it is clear that political decisions will have a lasting impact on the future of road transportation in the United States.
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