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In 2024, cross-border freight transport was marked by a dominance of imports from Mexico, how will the tariffs impact this trend?
In 2024, cross-border freight transport was marked by a dominance of imports from Mexico, particularly in the information technology sector, with a specific focus on truck transportation, according to LandLine. The latest figures provided by the Transportation Statistics Office show that, in December 2024, the year ended with cross-border truck freight valued at nearly $78 billion, representing a 6% increase compared to the previous year.
This growth in trucked cross-border freight is largely attributed to activity within and outside the southern border. However, the new administration and tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump could impact the figures achieved in 2024.
Cross-border freight from Mexico and Canada
The increase in the movement of Mexican trucks in 2024 was mainly driven by a 54% growth in information technology-related imports, making it the most important sector. Throughout the year, Mexican truck imports linked to information technology increased in double digits almost every month, with a remarkable 83% increase in September. In contrast, in 2023, information technology imports showed a decrease nearly every month, with a 10% increase in Mexican trucks and less than 1% increase in Canadian ones.
In terms of total cross-border freight, $126.3 billion was moved, a 3.9% increase compared to December 2023. Of this total, $62.4 billion was between the U.S. and Canada, a 2.1% increase compared to December 2023, while freight between the U.S. and Mexico reached $63.8 billion, growing by 5.6%. Over the past 22 months, Mexico has surpassed Canada in terms of freight value.
As for truck transportation, $77.6 billion worth of goods were moved, a 6.0% increase from December 2023. However, rail and ship transport experienced declines, with a 6.2% and 7.6% drop, respectively, compared to the previous December. Pipelines also saw a 2.1% decrease, moving $9 billion in freight, while air cargo increased by 9.7%, reaching $5.1 billion.
Nearshoring and tariffs: what will happen to imports?
The rise in cross-border transportation in 2024 was driven by the growing nearshoring trend, where U.S. companies began shifting from China to Mexico. During this year, record figures were recorded in freight transportation, with 677,000 truck crossings from Mexico to the U.S. in October. Laredo, handling approximately 40% of imports by road, experienced a year-over-year increase of 28.5% in holiday imports. This growth is attributed to Mexico’s nearshoring manufacturing capacity, supported by strong foreign investments, which could continue to favor imports in the coming years.
Overall, the value of cross-border freight reached $126 billion in December 2024, a 4% increase compared to the previous year. Canadian freight grew by 2%, while Mexican freight increased by 6%. However, ship, rail, and pipeline transportation modes experienced declines in November 2024. Additionally, on February 1, 2024, President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican products, which was temporarily suspended for 30 days during negotiations. On February 11, a 25% tariff was also imposed on all steel and aluminum imports. These measures have raised uncertainties about the future of cross-border trade, but nearshoring continues to show positive trends, with potential consequences such as increased production costs and delays in delivery times.
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