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The United States Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations.
In the latest episode of the Mercado Sobre Ruedas podcast, financial markets journalist Julián Yosovitch analyzes the current stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the performance of the American economy, in a context marked by persistent inflation. Below, we review his main takeaways.
The Federal Reserve of the United States decided to keep the interest rate unchanged within the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, in line with market expectations, thus bringing to an end a streak of three consecutive 25–basis-point cuts. The decision reflects a more balanced view of macroeconomic risks and greater caution in the face of persistent inflation.
In its statement, the Fed removed the clause that warned that the risk of a weakening labor market was greater than that of inflation. With this change, the Fed indicated that it now perceives more moderate risks and greater stability in both employment and economic activity, reducing the urgency for further rate cuts.
According to the central bank, available indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, job growth has moderated, and the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization. However, the monetary authority warned that inflation remains elevated relative to its 2% target, as the PCE index stands near 2.8%, closer to 3% than to the official goal.
Interest rates, markets, and inflation
The vote to maintain interest rates was not unanimous. Two governors, Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, voted against keeping rates unchanged and advocated for another 25–basis-point cut. Both officials were nominated by former President Donald Trump, who has intensified political pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs and stimulate economic growth. In contrast, the other 10 members of the committee supported the decision to keep monetary policy unchanged.
Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that recent data show an improvement in growth prospects, inflation evolving broadly as expected, and signs of stabilization in the labor market. Powell stated that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to address the challenges facing the U.S. economy and, for now, ruled out a rate hike, while emphasizing that future decisions will be assessed meeting by meeting.
In financial markets, expectations for rate cuts remained largely unchanged. Investors currently assign a 47% probability to a first rate cut in June, while for the March and April meetings the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged. A second cut could occur toward the final quarter of the year, with a probability close to 33%.
The macroeconomic backdrop supports the Fed’s cautious approach. The U.S. economy posted robust growth, with annualized GDP expanding 4.4%, driven mainly by private consumption, which grew 3.5%, and by strong export performance. Inflation, while still elevated, has not shown a de-anchoring of expectations, and the labor market remains resilient despite a slowdown in job creation.
Meanwhile, the weakness of the dollar has deepened. Over the past year, the U.S. currency fell more than 10% against other currencies, boosting a strong appreciation of emerging market currencies such as the Mexican peso, the Brazilian real, and the Chilean peso. This trend also strongly supported precious metals: silver rose 256% and gold 89% against the dollar over the past year.
Global outlook: emerging markets
The global landscape shows a markedly stronger performance by emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, where stock exchanges such as Peru and Chile led gains, far outperforming major U.S. indices. Nevertheless, sources of volatility persist, linked to domestic political tensions in the United States, the geopolitical environment, and movements in Japan’s debt markets.
Thus, the Fed continues to pursue a delicate balancing act: sustaining economic growth without reigniting inflationary pressures, in an economic environment that, for now, does not justify further interest rate cuts.
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