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Volatility has returned to Wall Street at the start of 2026, in a context marked by signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market and growing stagflation concerns.
In the latest episode of the Mercado Sobre Ruedas podcast, financial markets journalist Julián Yosovitch analyzes the warning signs emerging from the U.S. labor market and the broader performance of the American economy, amid persistent stagflation fears. Below are his main insights.
Volatility has once again taken hold on Wall Street at the beginning of 2026, driven by signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, uncertainty surrounding monetary policy, and a sharp correction in the technology sector.
According to a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, U.S. companies announced 108,435 layoffs in January, the highest level since the 2009 financial crisis. This figure represents a 118% increase compared to January 2025 and a 205% jump from December. At the same time, private-sector job creation totaled just 22,000 positions, well below the 45,000 expected by the market.
These figures reinforce the perception of a cooling labor market, which had already ended 2025 with sluggish hiring and rising layoffs. Key data releases are expected next week: economists project the creation of 60,000 jobs in January and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. The Consumer Price Index will also be released, at a time when inflation remains closer to 3% than to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Stagflation on Wall Street: low growth combined with high inflation
This environment has revived fears of “stagflation” on Wall Street—a combination of low growth or recession alongside elevated inflation. It presents a particularly complex challenge for the Fed, as raising interest rates to curb inflation could further weaken employment, while cutting rates to stimulate activity could reignite inflationary pressures.
Macroeconomic uncertainty is compounded by political developments. Donald Trump’s appointment of Kevin Walsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair unsettled markets. Although Walsh has expressed support for rate cuts, he also favors a more aggressive reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet, implying a more contractionary monetary stance at the margin.
Currently, markets assign a 75% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in March, within the 3.50%–3.75% range. The first 25-basis-point cut is expected in June, with roughly a 50% probability, followed by a potential second cut in September.
Meanwhile, the technology sector is undergoing a sharp correction, led by the software segment, which has fallen 28% from its September highs and has entered bear market territory. Companies affected include Microsoft, Salesforce, Oracle, Adobe, Palantir, and Autodesk, among others. Microsoft, in particular, recorded its largest daily drop since March 2020 after reporting a slowdown in cloud business growth.
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence is also introducing structural changes to the industry, displacing traditional software models and forcing companies to adapt their strategies in an environment with less direct user interaction.
The correction has spread to other risk assets. The ARK Innovation ETF is down 14% year-to-date, and several technology stocks have fallen between 12% and 50% from their highs. In the crypto market, Bitcoin has dropped more than 30% in the past week, falling below $60,000, while Ethereum has declined more than 15%.
In contrast, a rotation toward more cyclical sectors is underway: energy is up 17% this year, oil and gas 12%, consumer staples 12%, materials 12%, and industrials 8%.
With the S&P 500 trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 22 times earnings—levels similar to those of 2021—the market faces a delicate balance between stretched valuations and an increasingly challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Investors’ attention will be focused on upcoming employment and inflation data, which could shape the direction of monetary policy and markets in the weeks ahead.
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