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S&P Global Mobility estimates tariffs could reduce truck demand in the short term and modify the structure of commercial vehicle manufacturing.
Tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump aim to trigger a series of changes in both production and prices. Since taking office in January, Trump has adopted various trade policies, including tariff increases on China, Canada, Mexico, as well as on steel and aluminum. These increases have directly impacted the costs of commercial vehicles. With the implementation of a new 25% tariff, S&P Global Mobility estimates that this could reduce truck demand in the short term and modify the structure of commercial vehicle manufacturing.
The impact of tariffs on the truck market
Truck manufacturers are particularly exposed to the changes coming from the tariffs, given that a large portion of trucks sold in the U.S. come from Canada and Mexico. According to Commercial Carrier Journal and a report by S&P, nearly one-third of new Class 4 to 8 trucks are imported from these countries, with Class 8 being the most affected, as over 40% of its vehicles come from these markets. Since the 25% tariff affects vehicles made abroad, companies relying on these imports face a high risk of increased production costs. So, how much could costs increase?
Chris Spear, President and CEO of the American Trucking Associations, warned that the new tariffs could raise the price of a new tractor by as much as $35,000. Meanwhile, S&P Global Mobility estimates that truck prices could increase by an average of 9%, potentially leading to a 17% decrease in demand. This drop in demand could counteract any growth expected in the commercial vehicle market in 2025, resulting in a weaker outlook compared to the previous year, according to Commercial Carrier Journal.
In response, some manufacturers are considering cost-reduction measures and adjustments in their supply chains. However, U.S. suppliers have few options to absorb these cost increases, which could lead to a widespread increase in vehicle prices.
Possible reconfiguration of the truck market outlook
S&P’s report also highlights that the truck market could face an oversupply due to the accumulation of new vehicles already in transit or stored. Currently, the supply of new trucks represents about 4.5 months of demand, which is significantly higher than the typical three-month level. This could force manufacturers to slow down production to balance the market and avoid excess inventory.
On the other hand, tariffs could also slow down the adoption of zero-emission vehicles. Although trade restrictions had already affected this market, the increase in the cost of these vehicles could make them even less attractive to truck fleets, representing a new obstacle for the transition to more sustainable transportation.
While S&P experts estimate that the tariffs will remain in effect for four to five months, coinciding with the renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement, their impact could extend beyond this period, depending on the evolution of trade negotiations and the responses of the affected countries.
In summary, the implementation of the new tariffs could lead to a significant increase in the costs of imported trucks, affecting both manufacturers and buyers. While some of the impacts will be temporary, the adjustment in prices and demand for commercial vehicles could reshape the truck market outlook in the coming years.
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