Sunny outlook: optimism for the transportation market this summer

The Outbound Tender Volume Index shows an increase of over 7.1%

The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) serves as a record of electronic requests from shippers to carriers, primarily in long-term contracts. This index has shown an increase between May 26th and June 3rd, of over 7.1%, highlighting one of the largest increases in demand to kick off the summer shipping season since 2019, according to data shared by FreightWaves and SONAR. This upturn, which typically declines after Memorial Day, has remained at high levels beyond that date.

The land transportation market has been saturated since 2022 due to the decrease in the effects of COVID-19 on demand. Although bidding volumes have increased, rates have not risen proportionally due to available capacity. However, spot rates have experienced year-on-year growth of 4% to 7% since May, driven by events such as the International Roadcheck and Memorial Day, as shared by FreightWaves. This sustained increase marks the most positive trend since early 2022.

Market Change Signs

The market is showing signs of change, suggesting some stability for transportation service providers, although significant challenges still persist. To better evaluate this change, it is important to observe bid rejection rates, which reflect carriers’ influence on pricing and long-term predictability for shippers. According to data published by SONAR, these rates are currently below 5% but tend to increase. It is expected that during non-holiday periods, rejection rates will reach between 5% and 7%, indicating a more balanced environment.

Although demand has recently increased, this boost may be temporary due to seasonal patterns. Comparing 2024 bid rejection rates with those of 2019 reveals concerning similarities, suggesting that the market may have reached a capacity turning point. Although not identical, the 2019 model could serve as a guide for the remainder of the year, provided economic conditions remain consistent.

Ultimately, the transportation industry is in a transitional period where indicators point towards increased stability, but caution and adaptability are still required from market players. As encouraging signs, like the sustained rise in spot rates, are observed, it is crucial to maintain continuous vigilance over the evolving economic landscape and market conditions.

In this changing context, the ability to anticipate and agilely respond to market fluctuations will be crucial for long-term success. Transportation sector actors must be prepared to adjust their operational and pricing strategies based on emerging dynamics, seizing opportunities and mitigating risks in a competitive and ever-evolving environment.