UPS and FedEx at risk: consumers choose affordable ground shipping to save money

While speed remains important in some cases, cost and sustainability have gained ground when it comes to deliveries.

A new trend has started to gain momentum in the parcel delivery industry: more and more people are opting for slower delivery options to save money. As a result, major shipping companies like FedEx Corp. and UPS Inc. have been forced to recently cut their earnings forecasts. Currently, most customers prefer more affordable alternatives, such as ground shipping instead of air, a shift that could be a warning sign for what’s to come in upcoming financial reports.

The decline in demand for urgent shipments has been a consistent trend since 2021, with UPS reporting a 7.1% drop in the average daily volume of domestic air services in its latest quarter, while FedEx saw a 5% decrease in priority shipments. At the same time, companies have noted an increase in the popularity of cheaper shipping options across various markets.

Slow deliveries: a sign of an economic recession?

This shift has raised concerns among investors. The holiday season is a crucial period for shipping companies, but early indicators suggest that the upcoming holiday shopping season will not follow the same trends as last year. According to a survey conducted by Project44, more than 1,300 consumers in North America and the United Kingdom are buying gifts earlier to save on shipping costs. Additionally, two-thirds of respondents said they plan to spend less on gifts this year, and one in four cited shipping expenses as their main concern.

This move away from speed has triggered an identity crisis for companies specializing in fast deliveries. Despite the boom these companies experienced for years, the current reality is different; consumer preferences have shifted toward slower and more affordable options, and both companies have had to adapt.

The pandemic and the rise of fast shipping: stories from the past

The rise of Amazon.com Inc. significantly contributed to the demand for fast shipping, as consumers became accustomed to receiving their orders in two days, one day, or even within hours. During the pandemic, this trend intensified due to the need for essential goods and home improvement products. However, supply chain disruptions and product shortages led people to start accepting longer delivery times, and this change in attitude has endured.

Currently, the popularity of foreign brands like Shein and Temu has increased, offering products at very low prices, even though shipments can take up to a month to arrive. Even Amazon has begun to encourage slower deliveries by offering benefits to those who choose to receive their orders with an extended timeframe instead of the two-day express option.

In summary, the parcel delivery market is undergoing a significant shift in consumer expectations. While speed remains important in some cases, cost and sustainability have gained ground, forcing FedEx and UPS to adapt their strategies to meet these new demands.