Favorable outlook in diesel prices for consumers and transport industry

EIA reports that both retail and wholesale diesel prices will continue their downward trend.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that both retail and wholesale diesel prices will continue their downward trend compared to last year’s prices. Despite a slight increase in prices over the past few weeks, the outlook remains optimistic.

During the past month, diesel prices have softened. According to the EIA, the national average diesel price rose by 4 cents last week, reaching $3.584 per gallon, although the total increase was only 5.8 cents after 10 consecutive weeks of decline. Additionally, residential heating oil is expected to decrease by 5% year-over-year this winter.

EIA projections show that diesel prices are expected to remain stable in the coming months, with a projected average of $3.54 per gallon for the fourth quarter of 2024 and $3.53 for the early months of 2025. These figures represent a 1.8% and 4% decrease, respectively, compared to the EIA’s previous forecasts. Overall, retail diesel prices are expected to average $3.50 per gallon in 2025.

Downward trend in fuel: a favorable environment for consumers

Wholesale diesel prices also reflect a downward trend. The EIA has lowered its forecast for the fourth quarter by 11.2%, with an expected price of $2.06 per gallon. Additionally, the agency projects an average price of $2.40 per gallon for 2024, a reduction from the previous month’s forecast.

The agency also revised down its expectations for Brent crude prices, reducing the 2025 forecast to $78 per barrel, seven dollars lower than previous expectations. This decrease is largely due to a projected reduction in global oil demand, particularly in China, where diesel consumption has notably declined.

As for the U.S. domestic market, heating oil demand is expected to rebound after the harvest season, though with lower prices compared to last winter. The EIA estimates an average price of $4.20 per gallon for residential heating oil, about 10 cents lower than the previous year, which is good news for fleet fuel consumers.

This downward price trend, both in the domestic and international markets, reflects a more favorable environment for consumers. However, geopolitical dynamics and supply and demand conditions will remain key factors in the coming months. Nonetheless, a positive near-term outlook is visible for the transportation industry regarding fuel prices.